The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 13.08.2021
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There seems to be some contradicting views in the market. On one hand, the USD is strong against the EUR, which is showing an increase in the Bearish momentum. On the other hand, Gold is showing that the bullish momentum is taking hold, as it aims to break above the current resistance level. This shows that the USD is not sure of the direction it needs to head in. Let’s forget about Bitcoin, which is also showing an increase in the bullish momentum, aiming to break above the $50,000.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on August 13th, 2021.
Bitcoin Waits for Bullish Technical Patterns
During the US session on Thursday, the Bitcoin price was just below $45,000. The instrument was dropping quite fast as it fell below the 200-SMA (Simple Moving Average) on the daily chart, but the Bulls were quick to turn things around. Note that the daily closing price above this level confirms that the Bulls are largely in control, and despite the slow price movement, the most likely direction for Bitcoin is to rise. The daily chart shows that a bullish pattern is approaching, which may significantly push Bitcoin higher.
It’s important to note that if the 50 SMA narrows the gap to the 100 SMA, the probability of going higher again will increase. It is worth noting that the 50 SMA crossing the 100 SMA is not a golden cross pattern; however, this bullish pattern may trigger a buy order anyway, which would bring Bitcoin close to $50,000. However, until then, the $47,000 resistance will be posing a challenge to Bitcoin. If this barrier is broken, buyers at this level will quickly overcome the resistance and pave the way for more than $50,000 in profits. Until the rebound reaches a high of $55,000, Bitcoin Bulls are unlikely to calm down, and this move will allow you to expand profits.
Many analysts expect Bitcoin to close at around $100,000 this year, including Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee stated in his latest forecast that as global concerns about COVI19 ease, Bitcoin will rebound with the global economy and find a new price level. You should look at the support for the 200-day SMA, which will allow the Bulls to focus on gains above $50,000 while being protected. However, if the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) turns bearish, the loss of this important support and the lower daily closing price may trigger a sell order.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
EURUSD Struggles With Cautious Mood
During the Asian trading session on Friday, EUR/USD refreshed its daily highs of profit throughout those trading hours. The currency pair is still in a narrow 10-pip range and has not risen significantly. After testing the low near 1.1720 in the US session, the pair made an effort to break the 1.1750 level. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1740, which was up 0.11% on the day. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the top six currencies against the USD, fell from 93.00, but remains strong.
Investors are still optimistic about the strong US economic data. There are reports that several Fed officials expect the Fed to announce plans to scale back its large asset purchase program in September, and the U.S. dollar will rise as a result. On the other hand, due to pessimistic economic indicators from the Eurozone, EURUSD has continued to fall. Industrial production in the Eurozone fell by 0.3% in June, compared with market expectations of 0.2%.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), warned that due to the COVID Delta Variant and its impact on economic recovery, a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic may emerge. Traders are currently waiting for the German wholesale prices, the Euro trade balance, the US trade data and the Michigan consumer confidence to assess market sentiment.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
Gold Trades Higher Towards $1,760
The price of gold fell slightly from the daily high of $1,757, making it difficult to maintain a high level. Although the other side of the coin seems obscure, this is due to the lower yields on U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. Technically speaking, the price of gold may expand its rebound momentum towards the $1,765 price area, as shown in its four-hour chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded for the third consecutive day, rising by 0.10% to $1,756 during the Asian session on Friday. The metal’s recovery from a five-month low, marked on Monday, takes clues from the US dollar’s pull back amid a sluggish session filled with no major data/events and dead news feeds. It’s worth mentioning that the downbeat performance of equities in Asia-Pacific, despite positive plays of the Wall Street benchmarks, keeps a tab on the gold buyers.
In terms of positive sentiment, US President Joe Biden urged lawmakers to pass laws to reduce drug prices, while allowing medical insurance to negotiate drug prices and imposing sanctions on consumers. According to Reuters, drug prices are rising faster than inflation. In addition, Moderna's research shows that antibodies of this virus strain will be on the market within six months, which brings hope to suppliers. In a mixed game, the weak US dollar may help gold consolidate some of its weekly losses.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
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