The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 17.08.2021
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The overall market is reacting to the recent news surrounding Afghanistan, with Taliban invading Kabul. The news has made many people seriously worried about the fighting spilling out of the region and this has caused the risk appetite in the market to fall dramatically. Moreover, the markets are still reacting to the news relating to COVID infections around the world.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on August 17th, 2021.
Bitcoin Struggles to Hold Support
Bitcoin price tried to break through the $48,000 resistance zone once again; however, BTC's efforts to make progress led to a bearish reaction below the $47,000 support level, and the price fell beneath $46,500 and the 100-hour simple moving average. Breaking through the main uptrend line on the hourly BTC/USD currency pair chart, the support level is seen around $46,400. While the currency pair fell below the $45,500 support level, yet it was still above $45,000.
The low was formed at $45,288 and the price is now consolidating. The instrument managed to correct above the $46,000 mark. It broke the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level that recently fell from a high of $48,080 to a low of $45,288. On the other hand, the immediate resistance lies around $46,500. The first major resistance is at $46,750 and the 100-hour simple moving average. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline, from a high of $48,080 to a low of $45,288, is also close to this level around $46,685.
If Bitcoin clears the $46,700 and $47,000 resistance levels, it could revisit the $48,000 resistance zone in the near term. But Bitcoin may continue to fall, unless it rises above the resistance levels of $46,700 and $47,000. The initial support for the downtrend is around $45,500, and the first major support is now around $45,200. Currently, a big support is formed near $45,000, and unless the price remains above the $45,000 support level, it may move towards the $43,000.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
EURUSD Loses Bullish Momentum
The buying tone surrounding the US dollar made the EURUSD nervous in Tuesday morning trading. After hitting a low of 1.1753, the currency pair opened 1.1800 higher on Monday, but failed to maintain its momentum. Its trading price was 1.1768, which was down by 0.08% on the day. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the top six currencies against the U.S. dollar, remained strong at 92.70. Expectations of the Central Bank entering early tapering, is providing some support for the greenback at the lower levels.
The single currency is constrained by pessimistic economic data and overall risk sentiment: as the Eurozone's trade surplus fell in June, and industrial production fell by 0.3%, compared to market's expectations of 0.2%. Investors turn their attention to Euro Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Employment change data, and the US Retails Sales data to take trade insight. However, it is worth noting that the confluence of the one-week uptrend line and the monthly level range around 1.1750, poses a tricky challenge for the bearish currency pair.
The focus of Bears is to break below the 1.1750 reaching the 1.1700 threshold. If the EUR/USD price breaks below the 1.1700 psychological magnet (which is also a major support), the currency pair will be vulnerable to pressure that could form a 100-pip downward move ending near 1.1600, which marks a 2020 low. However, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA are located near 1.1805 and 1.1815 respectively, protecting the short-term price from rebounding close to 1.1875. Even if the EUR/USD bulls cross the stated resistance line, July’s high near 1.1910 will challenge the rise further.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
Gold Flirts with $1,780
Gold fell by almost $1,790 in the volatile trading range, scoring a drop by 0.10% on the day, and by $1,785 during the European session on Tuesday. Prior to the recent correction, gold had been rising for the past four days to consolidate the decline on August 8th. These moves may be related to the rise in the U.S. dollar and the negative market sentiment caused by the coronavirus and the geopolitical concerns.
The rise in the USD safe haven bids is coming from the COVID Delta Variant, as there are fears that the rise in the infection rate will reverse the economic recovery in the pandemic. Recently, the number of viruses in India, the United Kingdom and the United States has decreased slightly. However, in the Asia-Pacific region, higher infection rates are threatening the overall market mood. Moreover, President Joe Biden fears that the current situation in Afghanistan will spill outside of the borders, if not controlled. This will definitely have a negative impact on the already weakened market sentiment.
Elsewhere, the Fed policymakers’ indirect support for tapering and mixed economics adds to the woes of the gold traders. Moving on, the US Retail Sales for July, followed by a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at an online event in City Hall will hold important news for gold. Should the consumer-centric figure follow the recently downbeat US economics, gold may have an additional reason to decline. At the time of release, gold was fighting for a clear direction on the bullish chart.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
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